Kibaki (Kenya) + Bashir (n. Sudan) = OIL DEALS AND????

Bashir's Rep delivers message to Kibaki

Kenyan President, Mwai Kibaki, on Thursday assured Northern Sudan's President Omar al Bashir that the bilateral ties between the two countries will not be affected by cessation of Southern Sudan from the North.  

Kenya played a critical role in brokering the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).  Of course this was an economically strategic move on the side of Kenya.  Sudan's oil is exported via Kenya's coastal ports bringing in much needed revenue. Kenya also has strong ties with the SPLM government and is looking to have lucrative bilateral ties with the South enabling a tapping into their oil revenues as well.

The hot issue on the table that Kenya needs resolved amicably by the two Sudans is the final deliberations on the outstanding issues of delineation of the North/South border and the agreed conclusion on sharing the oil and gas rich regions.

Neo-Arabism spreading to the Sudan

Women in the Sudan protesting

Bashir's government is taking strides to "crush" any uprising instigated through social networks against the government.  The government has reacted violently to street protests organized by the youth and detained many activits.

Unlike Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, Sudan has not attracted any international attention. Many are waiting for the formal cessation of the oil-rich Southern Sudan from the Arab North in the summer.

Bashir is not a happy camper at the moment. He is about to lose a valuable national commodity - oil reserves - in the south. He was recently accused by the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) of plotting to overthrow the southern government.

Will Bashir be relevant after the cessation?  The wind of change blowing across the Middle East could pass by northern Sudan leaving significant government changes.  But like in all these countries where people want government change, there is no identified successor.